Monday, November 16, 2009

Dow Jones Positives and Unemployment Negatives, They're Both Up.


The Dow Jones Industrial Average topped 10,400 today. The big guys are saying that the recession is over. They're partying on, passing out bonuses in the form of stock options, and presumably breaking out the corporate jets once again. The trouble is that the unemployment rate has reached 10.2%, the highest it has been in a long time. For the Republicans out there who want to bash Obama, the last time the unemployment rate was that high was in 1983, when it reached 10.4%. That was during the reign of Ronald Reagan, the demi-god of the right.

I really think that the bigwigs want to put a positive spin on this to make themselves look good, and while my stocks are doing better, I certainly haven't recouped everything I lost when the stock market values went down the crapper. To illustrate a point, I was in a taxi riding down Michigan Avenue two nights ago and we were on the Magnificent Mile. I looked up and lo and behold, there were three burned out lights in the Neiman-Marcus sign. Unless one wants to go to Barney's, Prada, and the high end shops on Oak Street, there is nothing in the world that represents high end conspicuous consumption more than Neiman-Marcus, better known in some circles as "Needless Markup." Yet this high end bastion of plenty for the wealthy does not replace the burned out bulbs in its big honking neon sign? Are they suffering so? What will the ladies in furs and gentlemen in their Italian designer suits think when they discover their favorite store full of overpriced crap has fallen on such hard times? Will they now find it to be declasse? Where will they go to use their AMEX black cards?

Further, if big companies such as this are suffering and cutting corners on the eve of the busiest selling season of the year, what can we expect from others? Or is it the case that the wealthy are having to cut back as well. Can we expect to see former Neiman-Marcus shoppers in J.C. Penney's? Will they surreptitiously make trips to Target, or even K-Mart? Will the lure of a "Blue Light Special" reach all the way into the stratosphere of finance?

What next? Will Mercedes-Benz dealerships be reduced to offering 0% financing and free oil changes? Will Chase, Citibank, and Bank of America find themselves offering free toasters to bring in customers? (Well maybe espresso machines in many neighborhoods.) Will fleece become the new fur? Will Armani be reduced to designing more comfortable gym shoes?

This is a brave new world boys and girls. The multi-billionaires are at risk of becoming only billionaires. the People accustomed to making 7 figures in a year may be reduced to 6 figure salaries. Oh my God, the horror! And true to the principles of trickle down economics, the 6 figure guys may lose their jobs and be reduced to searching for jobs that only pay $80-90K/year. The middle managers may be your next barrista at Starbucks.

We have come full circle now, boys and girls. Those on the lower end of the economic spectrum are in full-blown unemployment mode. Those who find jobs often find that the best they can do are low-paying service sector jobs that are part-time. They represent the underemployed who do not find their way on to the list of fully unemployed. Then there are those who have been looking for work for so long that they have given up altogether, another group that typically does not show up on counts of unemployed. These are in addition to the 10.2% of officially unemployed.

Got a good idea about how to create some jobs? Write your Congressman. Call your President. Invest some cash if you have it, in a startup. There are not enough temporary jobs at Christmas, stocking shelves and running cash registers, to employ everybody that needs a job in this country. They don't pay enough to meet most people's needs, and these jobs only last until January anyway. We are in serious need of long-term solutions. Otherwise a lot of people better start planning to emigrate to one of those third world nations where all of our jobs were outsourced. I don't think China wants us. They have enough people of their own, and a lot of Chinese people are poverty-stricken and in need of serious employment.

For myself, I'm wondering if there is money to be made in low-cost neon sign replacement. That might go a long way toward supplementing my teacher's retirement when I finally have enough years in the system to retire, sometime around age 75. Then I won't be dependent on the possibility of national healthcare. Medicare is already there for people who are older than dirt. Remember Bill Clinton? You know, the guy who had sex with bimbos in the White House? Well, for all of his foibles, he once said something very wise, as regards this current situation, "It's the economy stupid."




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